Pierre is toast.
Yes, I know. This pathetic blog’s reader survey is not scientific. It ain’t 19-times-out-of-twenty anything. No public opinion sampling experts were injured in its design. And it only appeared here on this one site for less than 24 hours.
But, sheesh. It tells a tale.
Just under 4,100 people took the poll before webmaster William Stratas pulled the plug at 11:40 am. In Canada, that’s a huge sampling. And the audience is national. Moreover, we know from past surveys that the addicts who come here routinely are wealthier than most Canadians. They largely own real estate. They have a higher net worth. They skew older. There are more men.
In short, it’s a natively conservative crowd. So the results of this week’s mid-election poll (which closely match the one done on March 24-25 when the campaign started) show just how tone deaf the Poilievre team has become. Canadians do not want anger, mocking, name-calling, sloganeering and especially negativity about our country just when the place is under attack. The Conservatives opted for a Trump-style full-Monty assault on incumbency two years ago, and have not let up.
But Canada moved on. Trump is a bigger enemy than the now-defrocked Justin Trudeau. The new guy, Mark Carney, may be relatively unknown and amazingly boring, but he’s seen as the adult in the room best suited to face Tariff Man. Pierre’s the friend you want in a bar fight. Mark’s the litigator you’d choose for a dirty divorce case.
Well, the results are clear. More than half say their impression of Carney has improved during this campaign while a mirror number say they have a less favourable view of Poilievre. The dominant issue is, as you know, Trump. Far less important have been things the Conservatives have been spending whacks of time on, like crime and immigration. Very few even care about the carbon tax (which is now gone).
Seven in ten say that despite the flip-flops, back-tracking and policy wiggling, the threat Trump poses to Canada is just as serious as when the campaign began – and six in ten say Carney is the best guy to deal with it.
A third of you indicate you’ll switch party allegiance in this election (a massive move), and big numbers of people at Poilievre rallies are seen as endorsement by his base, not momentum among other Canadians. At the same time, western secessionist sentiment is being scoffed at, while most people lament the polarization of politics in this nation and yearn for a leader standing the centre. And you seem to have picked one.
As for voting intentions, the situation is nothing less than historic. Six months ago national polls gave Poilievre a twenty-point lead, as he savaged Justin Trudeau daily. Now the Liberals (in our poll) have almost as strong a lead, even as PP tries to destroy Carney. This 40-point swing in such a short period of time is without precedent in Canada.
It appears Mark Carney is about to be handed a majority government. Let’s hope he knows what to do with it.
READER POLL RESULTS, click to enlarge image:
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About the picture: “Garth! I’m a regular reader now because of my wife Irene who is a long time daily reader,” writes Sam. “We have many conversations about your articles. Your work is much appreciated and valued. Attached is our rescue pup Noodle, she is now ten years old but forever a baby and our first baby. 
I can’t imagine the shrieks of excitement if she were to log in to see Noodle at the top of one of your articles. I hope you would consider it, it would be most dearly appreciated and a surprise she would cherish forever. Irene and older Noodle are in the black-&-white picture.”
To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘garth@garth.ca.’