Balcony ballading helped keep Italians sane during the lockdown.
Before the virus attacked New York City, propelling mortality numbers higher, Italy was the epicenter of the pandemic. North American media was filled with viz of caskets, terrified health care workers, army trucks hauling off bodies and deserted urban landscapes. The country, we were assured, was completely pooched. Overwhelmed. Infected. Lost.
But, just a few weeks later, the Italian economy has started to reopen. Yesterday, in fact. Does this give us hope? What lessons are there for Canada? Did the media lie, or at least exaggerate?
GreaterFool’s irascible, mercurial yet meticulous and trusted on-the-ground correspondent is Dolce Vita. We asked him some pointed questions. – Garth
How did it feel to live through the hot zone of a pandemic?
My region was not hard hit but I dwell next door to hard-hit Veneto region. I only go out to shop/take garbage out 1/week all in 1 trip – I gown up with gloves, mask (look like an ICU worker, disinfect when I get home after, just like one).
Have to put up with that infernal Civilian Protection Agency van driving by each day blaring “Stay inside etc.”, duh, and having to read Tweeted replies by the American Far Right that have rotting teeth, recently telling me that the Italian lockdown “typical for Fascist Italy” stating “Give me freedom, or give me death” (how they got to that from social distancing is beyond me) also taunted by them for having a “Socialist” Public Healthcare System (yesterday, I hate to admit it but I Tweeted to them and inquired how their Private System was doing? No responses yet). And how did we turn Socialist a few Tweets after being Fascist?
Other than that Garth, pretty darn good.
How will the economy start reviving this week?
Firstly for those that do not know, yesterday (April 14) Italy went into its Phase I of returning back to normal (noticeably more traffic from outside that morning). Complete and extensive list here, by trustworthy La Repubblica:
If you look at the three broad categories in the list, they are subsets of the three main Italian GDP Sectors: Agriculture: 2.2% (2017 est.), Industry: 23.9% (2017 est.) and Services: 73.9% (2017 est.).
What I see in the list is Retail Trade, about €286113 Million or 12.5% of total GDP Nominal (€1.9 Trillion) plus Agriculture and some Industry, mostly manufacturing about 4% GDP. My guess is that 18% maybe 20% of the economy loosened up. The big bonus here I believe is that lots of people employed in the Services Industry will benefit the most returning to their jobs and getting a paycheck they can spend, which is good for the economy (Hospitality Industry, 14% of GDP, remains closed). Anyone not in those industries will still be subject to lockdown and returning workers have to practice distancing, masks, gloves etc.
May 3rd, 4th? This will be Phase II where it is expected the rest or a substantial amount of the economy and remaining workers will go back to work, again with distancing etc. Task Force working on it as I type. We’ll know the details within the next 2 weeks I am sure.
Media painted Italy as a basket case of poor planning & lousy health care with bodies stacked in the street. Was this accurate?
NO, ABSOLUTELY NO. Bergamo hardest hit in all of Italy and all you saw on MSM’s in Europe and N. America was Bergamo, Bergamo, Bergamo. Yet, it never collapsed – and they laid themselves bare in a time of terrific turmoil, tears, so the World could see how bad C19 was and to PREPARE, LEARN from what was happening there. Military helped haul away caskets, too many for funary locally to do it and they ran out of burial places in Bergamo. Outside of Lombardy & Veneto (to an extent), Italy was fine. Then later, originally aghast America at Bergamo, starts piling dead bodies in refrigerator trucks outside its NYC hospitals. I could go on, that’s enough.
What can Italy teach Canada now?
1. Italia today starts to be the Canary in the Coal Mine opening up its economy. Learn from the mistakes Italy will make and follow its successes. Get the Government of Canada to PLAN AHEAD for some time in Summer. Proactive, not Reactive. You have months to observe and learn.
2. Stop any bitching at Ottawa the provinces. 20/20 hindsight, clairvoyance not even Superman can do better – they are only human. Besides they are shoving all kinds of money your way, so at least show some gratitude (way more than Italy did).
3. It isn’t over until the voluptuous lady sings, Pandemics come in waves, pay no attention to the “glimmer of hope” crowd for now, instead, wait until your Rt ? 1 like Italy’s THEN celebrate, just a bit. In the meantime keep BUCKLING DOWN CANADA and BEAT those Government of Canada projections. Count the glimmer of hope moments in this flattening chart I went thru for the past month, only to be dashed the day after (my chart):
Almost forgot, listen to Garth, he’s a whiz at this where it seems most of the Cdn. MSM walking in a cloud, mesmerized by the events around them, doing no useful acute analysis, merely parroting what others say for the most part. When the going gets tough, the tough get going…Garth is the latter.
One last lesson:
Italia is down on her knees, BUT not out.
Here is what that has come to (poignant, well known song, sung by an Italian opera singer in English, in front of Il Duomo di Milano):
After writing this, I had a good cry for the first time since C19 began to ravage my Bella Italia and its people.
Thanks Garth, I needed that and you always seem to know what is best. – Dolce Vita