By Guest Blogger Ryan Lewenza
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Today I’m going to mix things up, moving away from my typical boring market analysis content and instead focus on the science aspect of this corona virus and pandemic. I’m fortunate that my brother is a specialist in this field as he’s been incredibly helpful to me in understanding some of the key elements of this virus. Today he’s going to try to provide answers to some critical questions and concerns around this deadly virus.
A bit of background first. Dr Shawn Lewenza is an Associate Professor at Athabasca University and an Adjunct Professor at the University of Calgary. He is a microbiologist with 25 years of experience researching bacterial infections, with a focus on understanding how microbes cause disease and evade the immune response, as well as antibiotic resistance and discovery. Clearly he’s a real treat at dinner parties!
Shawn, can you tell our readers a little about the science and the progress related to the development of a vaccine for the COVID-19 corona virus?
There are many developments in the brief time since the beginning of this pandemic that are rapidly leading to a COVID-19 vaccine. The outbreak was officially reported from China on December 31, 2019, and the first genome sequence of the corona virus responsible for the initial cases was released on January 13. It was only 63 days later when the first vaccine candidate from the biotechnology company Moderna was injected into volunteer humans for phase I trials. This was a world record setting time to go from virus sequence to the start of phase I human trials. The first phase determines if there are protective antibodies made in response to the vaccine and tests safety in humans, while phase II will determine if the vaccine is effective to prevent infection. This company is testing a novel mRNA vaccine strategy, which highlights our openness to new approaches.
In total, there are over 50 candidate vaccines being developed worldwide, which include multiple vaccine strategies, and clinical trials have already started1. While a vaccine normally takes between 5-7 years to commercialize, most experts agree on a much tighter timeline of 12-18 months for a COVID-19 vaccine.
There are multiple $1 billion dollar COVID-19 vaccine projects, both by industry (Johnson & Johnson) and private investment. The Bill and Melinda Gates foundation has deep experience in vaccine development and has committed to the construction of multiple vaccine production facilities. Rather than waiting for trials to determine a winning formula, this bet hedging approach will produce several hopeful candidates, with the intention to deliver a billion doses of vaccine by the time the data from the clinical trials are out.
What is the concept of herd immunity and how is it relevant to the COVID-19 pandemic?
Herd immunity is the process whereby a majority of the population become immune to an infection, through recovery after a natural exposure. When the immune herd approaches 60-80%, there is a very low risk of continued spread and outbreaks. The percentage is higher for highly infectious viruses like measles, and rough estimates of 50-65% have been made for COVID-19. All evidence suggests that COVID-19 infections produce an effective immune response that should lead to protection for life. A vaccine would decrease the time necessary to reach herd immunity, but many outbreaks flame out before the vaccine has been developed. This was true for the SARS corona virus in 2002-2004. The silver lining, however, is that all the work done on the SARS vaccine is accelerating the development of the COVID-19 vaccine.
Are there potential antivirals that may support the recovery from the pandemic?
In addition to vaccines and the growing percentage of recovered patients, new and repurposed antiviral drugs are a major hub of activity in biotech and basic research labs worldwide. While we have many antibiotics to treat bacterial infections (also under threat due to antibiotic resistance), we have relatively few antiviral drugs. Viruses are small, minimalist entities, with few moving parts, which makes the design of antivirals more challenging.
The anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine was found to be effective in a small, clinical study that some have criticized. A repurposed drug like this one already has FDA approval, which shortens the path to actually using this drug in a new context. Despite the uncertainty, clinical trials are already underway. The normal restraints for identifying lead compounds have been greatly relaxed during this pandemic. In addition to drugs that target the virus, this pandemic is also highlighting the importance of drugs that dampen the immune response, which are another strategy to treat this infection. Many of the symptoms may be due to an overreactive immune response attempting to clear the infection.
What most impresses you about the response of the scientific community to this pandemic?
Because of the strict social distancing and self-isolation policies that we are successfully implementing in Canada, it does mean that many basic science labs are also shutdown. I have been really impressed with the volunteerism seen in many scientists who are committing their time, lab equipment and expertise to help with many aspects of the pandemic. COVID-19 testing relies on a relatively simple method that most grad students in molecular biology could perform, and there are many trainees actively carrying out these tests, in support of the public health labs.
This pandemic is a wakeup call to governments about the need to invest more in preparedness, and in research towards testing and vaccines. This coronavirus pandemic is similar to most outbreaks, where the source of the virus is from food animal production, and I think this outbreak will lead to many policy changes that will reduce the risk of future outbreaks.
References
1. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/record-setting-speed-vaccine-makers-take-their-first-shots-new-coronavirus
2. Read here if you would like to see a simple description of the how the corona virus hijacks our cells. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/11/science/how-coronavirus-hijacks-your-cells.html
Ryan Lewenza, CFA, CMT is a Partner and Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments, and a Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, of Raymond James Ltd.