As Trudeau left, his approval rating was 16%. Now Carney’s is 60%, says Nik Nanos, the pollster. Poilievre’s numbers have tanked. He is viewed unfavourably by 60% of the population. Among females the negative number is 71%, says Angus Reid.
Can Pierre survive as leader, even if he wins back a seat in the Commons?
Nope. Toast. Canada chose a Progressive Conservative, not a MAGA Con. They rejected the angry guy and, praise be to Dog Above, most of those dour partisans have stopped taking a daily dump on this poor blog.
Carney has promised to fast-track infrastructure, lessen dependence on the US and learn to speak Albertan. So what else can people throw at him?
Well, how about this?
Yeah, it’s back.
In the last week a few articles of these have surfaced, the one above coming from Re/Max, of all places. As you may recall, during the election Poilievre raised this spectre, saying the Libs during a fourth term would spend so damn much money that a tax on home equity would be inevitable.
This is what he said in a Toronto speech to CARP members (wrinkly old coots) as the campaign was ending:
“What happens when the finance officials tap them on the shoulder and says, ‘You’re out of money, you need to go find more?’ Well, they’re going to go out and they’re going to tax your home equity. They’re going to go after your house,” he said, adding that hypothetical tax would be “crippling” for seniors.
“Bottom line is, Liberals will tax your home equity if you give them the chance in this election. We will never let that happen. Your home belongs to you, and when you sell, you should keep every single penny for yourself and your kids.”
The geriatrics didn’t buy it, as we know. But this is a tax threat dragged up repeatedly by the Conservatives, which refuses to die.
Of course, home equity profits should be taxed in the same way we treat capital gains on other assets. The fact this one single asset class has been exempted and carved out for special treatment helps explain why homes that cost $431,262 in 2010 (the average Toronto sale price that year) are now changing hands for $1.23 million. The shift in capital deployment to something that escapes tax has been massive, and helps explain why Canada’s per capita GDP lags far behind that of other G7 countries. Why invest in the economy, after all, when you can leverage up a house and make a bundle?
Okay, so Poilievre was wrong about Carney taxing equity (so far, and probably forever). But he’s also on the wrong side of the issue. And so is the prime minister. The best solution is to give everyone in Canada a lifetime capital gains holiday (of maybe half a million) that they can use to shelter profits from any asset – ETFs, stocks, hockey cards, rental condos, fine art or houses.
This would remove one of the greatest inequities in our current economic system – rewarding homeowners while disparaging renters. Not only has this disadvantaged a lot of people (like 50% of the population of the GTA and 60% of Montreal), but it’s created a stigma around leasing vs owning while inflating residential real estate and showering owners with unearned, tax-free wealth.
Would this mean tax-deductible mortgage interest and ownership costs?
Nope, not a chance. The lifetime cap gains tax exemption would be applied to the difference between the adjusted sale price (after selling costs) and the ACB of the property (purchase price plus land transfer tax paid and allowable improvements).
Anyway, not happening. Even though CMHC itself has acknowledged that it should.
“Reducing the tax shelter will disrupt feedback loops that fuel rising home prices. This would slow the escalation of home prices and improve affordability; reduce inequalities, including between renters/owners and younger/older Canadians; and attract savings and credit towards economic activity outside of the housing sector, which may produce more jobs and innovation than is often found in real estate.”
We elected the right guy, for a host of reasons. This is not one of them. And I am completely unelectable.
About the picture: “This is a pic from ’89 at our first house outside Golden, BC,” writes Phil. “A log house on 4 acres – we paid $68k for it. Every time I grabbed the wheelbarrow to do something, Cane jumped in and was very happy to be wheeled around the property. I really appreciate what you do.”
To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘garth@garth.ca’.